Week 10-11 2005
Dateline…

It must be in the water, the Fantasy Football bug that is. Computers all across the country have been steadily increasing their production and over heating as fantasy football coaches have begun to finalize their seasons. With four critical games remaining (for most leagues) it is time for teams to make their last push to cross the goal line into the playoffs.

The Rho Tau League is no different as 13 of the 20 teams in the league still have a shot, albeit a remote one in some instances, of making the playoffs. As this fantasy sports observer has noted over the past few weeks when speaking to fantasy sports advocates – this is one of the largest leagues they have ever seen, much less heard about. This in itself has created a parity unknown in most fantasy leagues and which can really test the knowledge and skills of it coaches. But let’s not fool ourselves; this is only half the equation. As most owners/coaches know, it really comes down to a dose of old fashion luck.

The grim reality of it all is that the PTL is a microcosm of the true dynamics we seen in the real NFL; a large pool of players with a limited number of upper echelon players while there is an abundance of teams that compete for the high end players but not enough teams to draw up all the eligible players. This is then magnified by the T.O. Paradigm, uniquely named after our beloved Terrell Owens.

What is the T.O. Paradigm? Here it goes –
There are hundreds of qualified wide receivers graduating each year from the NCAA, yet Terrell Owens stands head above all others for his atheletiscm and play making ability. But T. O’s abilities also directly contribute to his criticism- his mouth. Once he is excused from his team, there are many others that would love to have his ability and will feverishly, and at a high cost, attempt to recruit him. Meanwhile, there is a large enough pool to still adequately field a successful team with moderate players such as Marvin Harrison. (As you know Harrison’s only true outstanding ability is his knack to communicate with his QB Peyton Manning) Teams will fall over themselves to secure T.O. on their roster yet; they will overlook the diamonds in the rough found in other receivers. Thus the paradigm is created - while you must actively seek the best players, the best fit for the team is actively ignored.

Back to my point… these parameters alone create an intriguing league. Then we fuel this league with the onslaught of injuries, bye weeks and personnel changes. Sprinkle a little bit of experience variable for the coaches, add a dash of home field advantage or Monday Night Football adrenaline and top it all off with a good luck cherry. It certainly makes for a nice treat.

More to the point, with four weeks left the PTL coaches are looking to finalize there teams rosters with the most cogent list of players for success. They have to calculate all these variables all while determining the answer to the single most important question – is this good enough to keep me winning next week.

With that said, let’s take a look at the 13 teams that still are fighting for playoff contention and then more importantly what they have to do to survive.

HP Lampshades

At 9-1 the Lampshades are a virtual lock to make the playoffs. Although they still have their toughest competition to face in the Lightening, Onyx and Bruisers, they will most likely have clinched by then with just a win in week 11 against the Lone Rangers. The Lampshades with their league high average have only scored below 100pts four times this season and have a relatively easy game against the Lone Rangers who have only scored above 100pts once this season.

Raleigh Lightening

At 9-1, the Lightening by our math still need two wins in order to clinch a playoff birth. This is because their one loss this season comes from another playoff contender the Muddogs and the fact that the Lightening too face their toughest competition yet. They must face the Onyx, Lampshades, Bruisers and Kryptonite – all playoff contenders.
Leviathans

At 8-2, the Leviathans are also almost a virtual lock to make the playoffs. This high scoring team has made a great run and could make it deep into the playoffs. This team needs two wins to clinch a playoff birth despite their loss to the playoff contender Onyx. This loss was offset with a victory over two other playoff contenders the Jurocks and Muddogs. Leviathans still need to face the Inferno and Your Daddy and both teams know how to score. Their other two games are against the Mad Max and GO Bills! squads who together have topped the century mark only 5 times in 20 games.

7-3 Teams – Jagermeisters, Your Daddy, Carolina Muddogs and Tempered Onyx

At 7-3, there are a group of four teams on the same footing looking to secure a playoff birth. If this group can avoid beating themselves then they should all make the cut. However, it is suspected that one of these teams may fall out of contention.

The Carolina Muddogs have the easiest remaining schedule of the four facing teams with a 16-24 record. The Muddogs are a well-tested team having already faced 7 of the 13 playoff contenders and walking away with a 4-3 record. Their big challenge will be against the Jagermeisters.

Your Daddy has the next easiest schedule remaining facing teams with 19-21 record. Three of the four teams are playoff contenders and two are on the outside looking in. The Your Daddy has been well tested and was once the top team of the PTL. With a little effort they should make one of the coveted 8 spots.

The Jagermeisters have the second most difficult schedule with teams with 18-22 records. But don’t let this fool you. Two of the teams average over 100 pts per game and the third is last year’s Cinderella storied champion. This however should not be enough to keep them out of the playoffs. Upon their week 13 match-up against the Mad Max, the Jagermeisters should clinch a playoff birth.

Last in the grouping is the Tempered Onyx, who, by far have the most difficult schedule. They have face teams with a combined record of 23-17 and two of the four are tied for first. This is certainly a tough schedule. Should they suffer more than two losses they will need to rely on point totals to secure a position. The Onyx 878 total points is average compared to that of the teams still competing for a playoff birth. Whatever the outcome, the Onyx need to score big each week. Another concern for the Onyx is their QB status. McNabb is out and Ferrotte has a finger sore. They should be able to over come the finger sore but will it be too late.

6-4 Teams – Jurocks, PT Bruisers

These two teams are in a dead heat for the playoffs. While they are not a lock to make it, as they could be submarined by a lower ranked team, one of these two teams, if not both should make it to the playoffs.

The Jurocks
This team is playoff tested having faced five of the current contenders and escaped with a 2-3 record. This team could stomp the life out of the competition if they could only find some consistency. Their remaining schedule has them facing teams with combined record of 17-23 and two other playoff contenders. It must be noted that one of the playoffs teams they face is on the outside looking in. The Jurocks could go 3-1 over the next four games, which would make them 9-5. This could come down to their point total and at 886 they need to have 100+pt games to survive.

The Bruisers
This team is even more playoff tested than the Jurocks and all of their four losses of the season have come from playoff contenders. But it is not all roses for the Bruisers yet. They still have two more tough matchups against the leagues top rated teams, although by that point one of them will have another blemish on their record. The Bruisers next two games should result in victory. At 8-4, they will need to beat either the lampshades or the Lightening to clinch a playoff birth. Then the Bruisers will need to keep scoring. With a 914pts they are in the drivers seat should they be tied for the last playoff spot. If a 7-3 team is worried about making the playoffs, they need to watch the Bruisers.

5-5 Teams BarenJagers and the Kryptonite

The Barenjagers and the Kryptonite are the only two teams sitting at .500. These two teams need to win out in order to stay in play off contention. This would be a tremendous feat considering they both will face two other playoff contenders.

The Barenjagers are a turn around team. They started out 0-2 and then cleaned out their roster and hit the waiver wire. Since then, they have gone 5-3 taking out several playoff contenders. Going 3-2 down the stretch after losing the to Lampshades and the Bruisers. They have now faced seven playoff teams and could change the playoff picture since they still face two other contenders. As you can see they have one of the leagues toughest schedule and have managed to survive. These guys need to win out the rest of their schedule and then score big. Based on today’s projection one, maybe, two, teams can make it in with 9-5 records. That means these guys need to score and score big to take out the other 9-5 teams as they already have almost 80point disadvantage.

The Kryptonite’s also need to win out. This will prove difficult for them since they are 0-5 against playoff contenders. The Kryptonite also have to face to two of the top playoff contenders in the Lightening and Your Daddy. Both teams are looking to clinch themselves and will undoubtedly not give much room for success to the Krpyts. In the end the Krpyts need to win big too and have almost a 70 pt deficit to overcome.

4-6 Teams the Mtners and the INFERNO

Although below .500, both of these teams still somehow and someway, have a mathematical chance to make the playoffs. The Mtners and the INFERNO are both hoping that the wins and loses fall correctly. Lets start with the… Mtners.

Should the Mtners win their remaining four games that puts them at 8-6. Then there must be a 7-3 team to lose all their games, a 6-4 team that fails to win 3 games and 5-5 team that fails to win 3 of its games. Then by some twist of faith all of this happens in pattern that leaves them in a deadheat for 8-6. Then the Mtners must have more points than the other teams. The latter point is more likely since they average over 100pts a game. However, this will be a difficult task overall. If it could be done, then they could do it.

The INFERNO are in the same boat except, they must win all their games with at least 150 pts per game to compensate for the 200pt deficit to the Mtners. Leon, we all love you but it looks as though the numbers are stacked against you. We will see you in 2006.

And that’s a wrap. Obviously, by Monday, these will all be outdated and the playoff picture will be clearer. The top eleven teams must all keep clawing to make the playoffs and to fight for playoff position. Clearly, once the playoffs are set we could watch several lower bracketed teams excel due to matchups, roosters and schedules.

Again, it will be interesting to see the last minute moves and grooves by the coaches to adjust their team. May the best man win.